A peace deal has been worked out in Minsk. At the moment, we are going to get a frozen conflict. There must be a buffer zone between the Ukrainian army and the Russians of 50 km. The intent is to keep either side from shelling the other with artillery.
OTOH, the ceasefire has been called one in name only by NATO.
OTGH, the separatists have been shelling around Mariupol and in Donetsk at the airport.
The really important questions though are what is happening in Avdviika (a chance there is a large tank attack underway), if the reported attack in Debaltseve and if reports the rebels are turning on one another in Krasny Luch and Antratsyt are true. Any of these are a big deal.
The rebels/Russians are now starting to wave a flag of the Kharkov People's Republic. Its just the former heads of the DNR and LNR doing so, but...
Flipside is there is a nontrivial number of Americans ex military personnel going over to train the Ukrainians. It might be possible for the Ukrainians at least to be able to resist further encroachment with the proper training and...
Poland is willing to sell their old Soviet equipment (as suspected here) to the Ukrainians. Interesting timing and I am probably reading waaaay too much into this is that the US agreed to sell missiles and other weapons to Poland at the same time.
Time might be on Ukraine's side. That is if they can lobby Congress well, get their army trained and accept and fix the equipment they are now getting from Poland, etc. They just have to keep the microwave from being turned on. Ribbit.
Watch for provocations, folks. There are likely several coming, real and maskirovka-style.
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