Sunday, May 25, 2014

Ukraine: a Broken, Chocolate Dawn

Presidential elections took place in Ukraine.  They were flawed due to the fact in the East the Little Green Men ran around smashing voting booths in the Donbass and very few votes were cast from that area.  Poroshenko is president.  Chocolate king wins a broken country.

I hope he has the wisdom to keep Yatsenyuk.  I am sure he's very aware of what a snake Akmetov is.  Since he is an oligarch, there is a lot of fear from my Ukrainian sources he will simply line his pocket and try handing Ukraine over to Putin like Yanukovich tried to do.  All we can do is sit and wait on that one.

Battles have been taking place as far as the anti LGM ops.  20 soldiers have died this past week.

There have been reports some of the Russian troops have been pulled back.  Putin has claimed he's pulled back a few times, only to be shown not the case by sat imagery.  I have to wonder if he'll pull back a little at a time, to leave the window open to try to snag eastern Ukraine as long as he can.  However, he may be giving up or shifting tactics due to the attempt at forcing the secession from the top down and it not taking.  As for why...

I have been hearing interesting stories out of Eastern Ukraine.  I do NOT know how much weight to place on them: I have railed against the rumor mill in Ukraine before.  I will do so again.  I am plugged into that rumor mill.  I'll let you decide whether you can believe this one.  or not.

There have been cases where folks claimed they were drafted into the "Ukrainian army" only to find out it was the LGM running the show.  The men in question drilled as Ukrainians, thought they were preparing to fight LGM to defend Ukraine.  However, when they went to start fighting, they found they were attacking their neighbors or Ukrainian soldiers, not LGM.  They were horrified and deserted. 

Some version of that would explain why the LGM have been failing to take over.  They lied about what they were doing and the locals, whatever stage they found out, ditched the LGM.  It would also explain the intercepted calls which the LGM spoke disparaging about the local levees.  However, to be deceived to the degree ...

I have stated before I thought Putin had to snag the Donbass and southern Ukraine - the old Wild Fields - prior to the presidential election.  I think his chances of successfully doing so are rapidly dwindling.  His hopes now are likely hinging on the gas and other pressures he can bring without firing shots.  He's hoping the pain will bring the east into his lap.  I sincerely doubt it. 

I will give Putin one thing.  This entire crisis has proven one huge boon for Ukraine in a single way: eastern Ukrainians are no longer viewing Russia as their family, brothers or sisters.  They have come to see the western Ukrainians as their people, not the Russians.  By taking Crimea, Putin has welded Ukraine together as it has never been before.  The actions of the LGM in the east have seen to that.  Putin has become a villain in their eyes.  Russia has become an enemy.

Good job, Herr Putin.

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