BREAKING REPORT 2: Ukraine, the Battles

Looks like Kramatorsk is being attacked by the Ukrainian army.

The LGM are asking for help from Russia.

The fighting in Slavyansk seems to have moved into the city center and around the train station if reports are to be believed.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

Ukraine Warms up

I missed an important event.  The Ukrainians were attacked at the Kramartorsk airport. A helicopter and a transport plane were destroyed.

Despite encircling Slavyansk, Kostyantynivka was overrun and taken over by the Little Green men. This is south of Kramatorsk.

There have been intermittant attacks on the Ukrainian army encampments.  Grenade launchers and other attacks.

 One army base had 500 unarmed civilians walk up and demand the disarmament of Ukrainian soldiers.  They refused and the crowd left.  There may have been a hope the Ukrainian army would kill the civvies.

In Donetsk, pro russian titushki attacked a pro Ukrainian march.  They kidnapped at least four people.

The total number of hostages taken in Slavyansk is supposed to have reached 40, including the OSCE observers.   While I generally COMPLETELY disagree with the Russians, what Europe was thinking by sending the observers to Slavyansk is something I cannot fathom.

The mayor of Kharkov was shot by a sniper.  He's been in surgery and now fighting for his life.

There has been little good on the Ukrainian side.  

The US has imposed more sanctions.  Congress is moving to ban purchases of all military and aerospace components.  This is where things get hairy.  The International Space Station will be effected and we do not currently have another way to it except through the Russians.  This will also cripple the Atlas V, Antares and Delta IV launchers.

The EU has likewise imposed more sanctions.

Ukraine Peeking at Armageddon

Because they refused to lay down their arms in accordance to the Geneva accord, the counteroffensive against the Little Green Men is taking place. 

In the Ukrainian's favour, Ukrainian forces have cleared the Donetsk city hall of LGM & associates. 

Mariupol's public buildings were likewise cleared.

 Sviatogorsk was likewise cleared of LGM.

 Clashes have taken place near Slavyansk and the Ukrainian army has surrounded it.

Ukraine reports 5 LGM killed.

To Ukraine's detriment, the LGM have taken over Yenakiieve. 

Russia has started exercising the troops near Ukraine's border and moved them closer according to some accounts.  Putin and Lavrov are making threats.  The Russian troops have been sighted near the Russian side of the M03 highway in the southeast and the E105 in the northeast. 

Vladimir Rybak from Gorlovka, a councilman from Gorlovka, was murdered.  He was from the Party of Regions originally, but opposed the LGM and joining Russia.  He was brutally stabbed to death and dumped in the river.  Another individual, reportedly a student, was tortured and dumped in the river too.  At Rybak's funeral in Gorlovka, the Ukrainian flag was proudly flown...in the midst of the LGM territory.

The LGM and their puppets have begun kidnapping people in the territory they control.  Some are being used as hostages.  In Slavyansk, they are threatening to kill those hostages if the Ukrainian army attacks.

There is deep concern that LGM will take over Lugansk. 

The US has moved troops to the eastern NATO nations in support.  This includes ground troops and aircraft.  The US is threatening even heftier sanctions against Russia.  The US has already started moving trucks and whatnot non weapon supplies to Ukraine as well.

Europe seems less enthusiastic about more sanctions.

On the hilarious side, Putin has called the Internet a CIA project. 

Ukraine After the Pause

The LGM & levees seem to have refused to lay down their weapons. They have stated the Geneva talks have nothing to do with them.

In response the Ukrainian President has ordered the troops to resume rooting out the LGM et al. 

We are back to where we were before the talks.  Diplomacy has failed.

The US State department has presented a series of images showing the LGM to be Russian soldiers rather than local protestors or pro russian locals or even separatists.  

Let us be honest: Russia is attempting another Crimea, but it is not going as smoothly.  Its all on Ukraine to stop it.  Its time for them to take off the gloves.  Let's hope the Ukrainian military is up for this.

Ukraine Bites Back

The counter offensive by the Ukrainians has begun.  

The Karamatorsk airport has been retaken.  Easily even.  An Ukrainian general came out to state he was there to protect the locals and no harm would come to them.  That didn't go so well and he was roughed up.

Slavyansk has reported they are surrounded.  There are some reports the troops have entered or will be entering shortly.

The US reiterated they are considering offering weapons.  There are now calls for the US to send troops.  The American public is not very enthusiastic, however.

There is a rumor the Russians ordered a pullback of their special forces within Ukraine.  It might be to avoid capture.  Or it might be a hope there will be a blood bath somewhere.

The EU is preparing more sanctions.  The US is as well.  (C'mon...173/2/12!)

We shall see what the consequences are.  Russia threatened to use force if Ukraine did.  Well...

Ukraine: Beginning of the Slide Into Russian Oblivion?

The last 24 hours were NOT good for Ukraine.  

Supposedly at least half the cities in the Donbass are now controlled by Little Green Men.  Gorlovka's police fell today.  The police chiefs were badly beaten based on photos.

In Slavyansk, the LGM seized the airport.  Huh.  that seems to be a similar pattern.

Russian media reported the battle for Slavyansk has begun.  I have not found another source of info to support that though.  It fits within the timeframe the Ukrainians talked about moving against the separatists.  

There was an interesting phone intercept.  If it proves to be true, its a damning piece of evidence the Russians are the ones entirely behind the unrest. It makes you wonder if the NSA was giving support.

There have been a number of sightings of RPG-30s on the Little Green Men.  This is a recent, Russia only using antitank weapon.

Someone ambushed some Little Green Men outside of Donetsk and killed 3.  What that means remains to be seen.  Maybe the LGM should be "concerned?"

The Russians had an Su-24 buzz a Burke class destroyer in the Black Sea.

CIA Director John Brennan was in Kiev this past weekend.

The US is now saying arming Ukraine is an option given what Russia has been up to: here's looking forward to the first shipments of ATGMs and MANPADs.  At this point, perhaps a few mercs like the Russians accused the US of sending are actually in order.

Apparently, Obama and Putin had it out over the phone.  Putin claimed Russia was not behind the counter revolution in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.  I guess its pretty easy to tell when Putin's lying these days: he opens his mouth.

Europe is considering more sanctions.  ooooo.

hrmph.  I keep feeling the urge to play armchair general: the 173rd, 2nd CR and 12th CAB would send a serious message to Putty-Pie.

Ukraine: The Deadline is Here

I doubt the LGM have backed down.  let's see if Kiev's got the cajones...

and if the Russians react like they say they will.

Ukraine: Clawing to Keep From Being Pulled Under

The Pro Russian forces - the Little Green Men - made some pretty bold moves today.  They hit at least Gorlovka, Kraysni Lymon, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  They succeeded in taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  There was a shoot out in Kramatorsk: the video was taken and resides above.  In Slavyansk, the mayor even came out in support of the Little Green Men and helped build the modest, more symbolic barricade and the LGM set up check points outside of town.  In Kraysni Lymon, the people came out to make a human chain to block the LGMs from taking the police station.  In Gorlovka, the police won the shootout with the LGM.  Reports are the LGM worked as a unit, a platoon, actually.  That's not a good sign.  It definitely means they are not merely locals.  

A similar attempt was made in Donetsk to grab more buildings.  It did not succeed.  There may have been something similar in Kharkov, but the populace was out in spades today for Ukraine.

A bus full of LGM was caught outside Artemovska.  The police and activists chased down and disabled the bus.  here's a link.  Its something I've been avoiding in these updates.  This time I think I ought.

The Ukrainian authorities need to make a move against these groups.  By dithering over Donetsk, they have encouraged the second wave of LGM.  I understand their reasoning: Russia has been threatening to intervene.  The problem is the Russians are effectively in process of intervening now and no action makes it completely likely the regular russian army will follow.  This is the playbook of Crimea.  They are doing it again.   Dithering plays into the hands of the Russians.  There has been a report or two they may be getting together an armed response.  We'll see.

There are reports Lavrov has pulled out of the four way talks with the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine.  this is conflicting with a lot of others.  I sincerely hope they are not pulling out and the Russians are not just playing for time.  It has been confirmed Russia is talking about pulling out of the talks if Ukraine responds to the LGM with force.  That'd definitely imply the Russians didn't want to have them in the first place because the Ukrainians MUST reply with force.

In other news, Biden is going to go to Ukraine later in the month to show support.  It'd be support if the 173rd went with him.  Otherwise, it's what the Ukrainians call 'empty words.'

The Chinese in other news have expressed support for the IMF to bailout Ukraine.  While there was a bit of equivocating, it was much less than before. 

Ukraine: The Grind Forward

It seems whatever the hopes the pro Russian groups had in the east, they have been almost completely confined.  The People's Republic of Donetsk seems to be confined to a single building which is steadily fortifying and the locals are mostly steering clear.

Yatsenyuk has offered to devolve some powers from Kiev to the regions.  Its not full federalism, but partial.

Poroshenko seems to be the front runner for the Ukrainian Presidential election in may.  Next is Timoshenko.  My biggest concern about the Chocolate King is he is another oligarch and was endorsed by...Firtash.  oy.  This could be more of the same corruption.

There was another fist fight this week in the Rada.  oy.

NATO has released a series of images of the Russian units massed on the borders.  They are apparently done exercising - if they ever were - and ready for use.  The draftees, who are normally headed home this time of year, are not.  This is enormously worrying.  Not only are the current draftees staying, but knew ones are swelling the ranks.

The Russians offered financial aid to Ukraine in exchange for acknowledging Crimea as Russian.  If they take this, it out to be a purchase and a huge $ value.  Like say all of the back cost of Ukraine's gas bills and the same for the next ten years. Plus adding Kaliningrad Oblast to Ukraine in exchange.  ;)

The Russians warned Europe they might cut off gas to Ukraine because of the back bills and that would effect flows to Europe.  Europe in response offered Ukraine gas and the EU guarantees Ukraine's payments to its member states.

There are accusations of Russia keeping the newer jets and other military equipment Ukraine had in Crimea.  I have to admit I am surprised the Ukrainians are getting anything back. 

The US has increased the # of folks on the sanctions list.  These are both Russians and some Ukrainians and some Russian businesses.

There has been talk of supporting the hryvnia  by the US and other countries, so Ukraine has a chance to avoid some of the economic disasters associated with a rollercoasting currency.

The IMF has stated Ukraine's debt is sustainable.  A nontrivial concession by them.

Ukraine: Not Yet Conquered

 

The battles for the East are continuing.  It appears the Pro Russian groups have been completely ousted in Kharkov: 70 arrests were made.  However, that is not the case in Lugansk and Donetsk.  In Lugansk, the pro russian forces have taken hostages (most have been freed).  These guys are starting to cross into the terrorist category.

I suspect that with Kharkov cleared, the next city to be is Lugansk.  Donetsk is the hardest of the lot with so many having shown up in support of the 'People's Republic of Donetsk': I've seen claims of up to two thousand.  The picture above is from the admin building the pro russian folks have barricaded themselves in.  Earlier in the day, a human chain of women - babuschkas really - 'blocked' access until the barricade was in place. 

Timoshenko has arrived in Donetsk.  I am sure this will completely help the situation.  Good grief.  That woman is poison.

 Everyone in the West is stating the Russians are behind the latest attempts at seizing the east's admin buildings and whatnot.  US Secretary of State Kerry even called it a pretext for an invasion.

There was a fight in the Rada in Kiev.  The communist rep Symonenko running for president who is actually from Donetsk accused government in Kiev of playing into Russia's hands by removing the "protestors" in the east.  One of the Right Sector twits attacked him.  Whether he's right or a Russian puppet, fist fights in the Rada?  Really?

The US has moved another Burke class destroyer into the Black Sea officially in support of Ukraine.  NATO is increasing troops and planes on the border of Ukraine.  (C'mon Obama, just say '173rd')

NATO is apparently supplying Ukraine with nonweapon supplies for its military.  Fuel, trucks, food, etc.  This may make a difference.  You can't convert over an entire army in a month to new weapons, but trucks can definitely help.  They need to supply ATGMs and SAMs for the Ukrainian soldiers next.  That will make another difference.

There is a rumor (of course there is!) the pro Russian forces are supposed to make a lot of blood shed tonight to provide the pretext for Russia's intervention.  We'll see.

The EU, America, Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet over the crisis.  I suspect Russia will obstruct or obfuscate and delay.  

Russia, btw, was forced to cancel a bond sale.  No one wanted to buy at the prices they wanted to offer.  The market DOES care what Russia is up to.

Ukraine on a Boil: Lance it or get out of the pot!

Lots of rumors.  Few facts other than what has been happening in the east.

The east.  Least start there.  The Pro Russian groups moved again in Kharkov, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Donetsk.  They took over a number of buildings and subsequently forced out of most of those.  While they had control of the buildings they declared independent republics for the different cities.  They called for referendums and for Russia to intervene. 

The Russians seem to have begun painting some peace keeping slogans on tanks.  

The Russians have also warned Ukraine NOT to use force against the pro russian forces. 

Related, the US has released pix of the build up of tanks, etc near the border near Rostov-on-Don.  Its impressive.

The Ukrainian military is working on rearming and in the process becoming NATO compatible.  They are NOT joining NATO any time soon though.

more later if I have time.

Ukraine: And the Pain Plays on

The bitter-sweetness of victory?  That's the feeling at the moment.  There are a number of events underway which could ruin Ukraine, but may help instead.

Yanukovych has given what has to be one of the bizarrest interviews since Charlie Sheen. He stated he did ask for help from Putin with soldiers, but hopes to negotiate the return of Crimea. He calls his request an utter mistake. The man is a complete idiot.

The Right Sector handed over a fair amount of improvised weapons to the National Guard. However, they did state they would be rearming until the situation in Ukraine has improved.

Poroshenko - the chocolate king (but not of chicago!) - seems to be gaining steam running for president. I hope he's better than Yanukovich. There are supposed to be 38 (!) candidates including Darth Vader! (oy) No to Timoshenko!!!  I hope Yatsenyuk keeps the PM spot though.

Ukrainians keep catching Russians with car loads of weapons. Not sure what to make of this.

The Russians, despite some earlier reports, have not pulled back their troops. Not even a battalion.

NATO has stated Russian can overrun eastern and southern Ukraine in no more than 5 days.

Russia has upped the price of gas to Ukraine. They have stated they may increase the price further to recoup the discounts they gave earlier to Ukraine. jerks. In retaliation, the West has promised to help Ukraine with getting off its Russian gas addiction. Perhaps this will include LNG stations on the Black Sea. One could hope.

Russia has also issued warnings to Ukraine about moving closer to NATO. 

On the embarrassing side Lyudmila Putina dressed in Ukrainian colors.  ;)

Ukraine: And then?

Kerry and Lavrov have been meeting a lot since the last update.  There have been some bitterness from Ukrainians, although not much, since the US has been insistent that no agreements can be made without Ukraine involved.

The interior ministry has moved against the Right Sector.  They raided the Dnipro hotel and removed the Right Sector from there.  They are being disarmed (so reports say) and transported out of Kiev.  I hope this is not the start of tearing at one another.

There are reports Russia has pulled back a battalion of troops from the Ukrainian border.  One Battalion is not much, really.  They are also supposed to be reducing the number of troops in Crimea.

The Russians have unilaterally declared the Black Sea basing agreement as null and void.

The Russians keep talking about federalization for Ukraine.  No one else seems to be listening.

The Crimean Tatars have voted for autonomy.  What that means remains to be seen.

Yanukovich continues to demonstrate what an idiot he is.

Ukraine: Increasing Warnings & Some Hope

The Russian build up on the eastern border continues.  The Ukrainian government is giving second sources now of support units moving along.  The videos above vary from March 11 to yesterday.  The one with the APCs is impressive.  That's the full logistics train, not just AFVs, and it looks to be somewhere around 50 APCs.  That is at least a battalion.

Putin called Obama to discuss the situation.  

Obama warned Putin to move the troops back away from the border.

The Ukrainians have dug in along the border.  Its a big border.

The Russians also threatened the UN ambassadors in eastern europe and central asia just before the UN vote for supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  The Russians replied they just explained the situation.  ahem.

The candidates are coming out of the woodwork.  Poroshenko seems to be the leading contender.    Ukrainians I know call him a crook.   Since the presidency is supposed to be symbolic, a la European style, Klitschko might be the best pick.  Whoever it is MUST stick with the constitution.  Timoshenko must NOT be elected president.  She will rip up the constitution again for her own advantage.

It appears the Ukrainians avoided some of the pitfalls Greece made with the IMF.  Though that might be

I'm going to cave in for the moment to my inner arm chair general and wonder what would be the repercussions if the 173rd Airborne Brigade were deployed to Donetsk.  Would that make things better?  IE tripwire troops to make the Russians think twice?  Or would that make things worse?

Ukraine: Precipitous or Peril

The IMF announced its deal.  The first part is $18 billion over two years.  Then if the reforms required are pushed through there is another $9 billion available.  I think we're over the $40 billion in promised aid to Ukraine now.  

However, the aid does not come without teeth, serious teeth which are going to bite the average Ukrainian hard.  The first is a rise in the price of natural gas starting in May of 50%.  Not a phased in, but rather a simple jump.  The second I have seen is a serious cut in social spending by the government.  This has been already passed as of today, if I am not mistaken.  Finally, which won't hurt the average Ukrainian much, the tax rates for the richest Ukrainians are going to go up.  A LOT.  

The US White House and Congress have become become EXTREMELY worried about the Russian troops on the eastern border.  The types of units being moved in, their constantly exercising and continuous reinforcement seem to belie the claim these are normal exercises. It also fits the pattern before the invasion of Chechnya and Georgia.

Putin is getting angry over the threat of cutting Visa and Mastercard off from Russia.  He's threatening to make a domestic equivalent, but how long and how corrupt would it be?

The Right Sector marched on and protested in front of the Rada.  They want the Interior Minister fired for the death of Oleksandr Muzychko. They "apologized" to the Russians for not turning violent and having no plans to do so.

Timoshenko is planning to run for president of Ukraine.  If she gets it, its a disaster.  She should not be let ANYWHERE near the levers of power in Kiev.  She and Yuschenko are to blame for the Orange Revolution failing.  

 

Ukraine: The Newest Threat

There has been a lot going on.   There have actually been some good developments.  However, there have been humiliations and a new threat.

First off, the IMF and Ukraine seem to have reached a deal.  The amount to be loaned is supposed to be $15 billion.  The Japanese have announced they will loan $1.5 billion as well (contingent to the IMF deal going through).  With the previously promised amounts, we have now exceeded $35 billion.   This is good news.  But it comes with some pain.

The IMF required Ukraine to end subsidies on a lot of things and other reforms.  One of them is the cost of consumer gas.  That will rise 50% in price in May.  That will hurt the average Ukrainian.

The East and south have been rounding up the trouble makers, arresting many of the separatist leaders and the protests for Russian integration/intervention have been dwindling in size.

The Russians are paying substantially for their acquisition of Crimea: $70 billion have left Russia already in the first quarter and more, a lot more soon.  Its not as bad as the amoutn siphoned off by Yanukovich et al percentage wise from Ukraine, but still enough to hurt. And its going to hurt more. 

The West is getting set to do another round of sanctions on the Russians.  As I said, this will hurt even more.

On the bad side...

The Russians have finished capturing the Ukrainian navy.  They have started releasing Ukrainian troops to go to the mainland.  They claim to have had 50% of them flip sides to the Russian military.  The Russians also have increased the number of troops on the eastern border. 

There have been more than one claim the Russians, if they are going to, will have to intervene before the end of May. 

Now the new threat.  That is Trident on Trident violence.

Oleksandr Muzychko was killed by police.  He was far from a hero and was threatening the new government and was accused of war crimes in Chechnya against captured Russian troops.  However, his death could trigger a backlash against the government from the 'Right Sector.'

Likewise the Marines I had been praising so much in Feodosia are pissed off.  They were about to leave, surrendering their base, when the Russians swooped in.  Despite some personal apologies from the Russian troops ("Sorry, brother."), the Marines were humiliated.  Some of them have been saying when they get back to the mainland, they will storm the defense ministry's HQ.  While I've commented before on Ukrainians seemingly lacking much filter between their brains and mouths, that's a scary prospect.

Why?  And that would give Russia EXACTLY the pretext they need to intervene.  I hope the Marines and the Right Sector realize that...and refrain from rash actions.  You're getting damned close to being on course for Europe.  Hang on guys! 

What to Watch on the Ukrainian Border

Watch for field hospitals.  If they are there, then war is coming and soon.  If they are not, Putin's being orally flatulent.

Watch for the hospitals.  Some Russian speaking Ukrainians ought to go take a peak and take pix if they are there.

I know I have a fair number of Ukrainian readers.  You can email me the results if you need/want to.  anzha el why you at gmail.com.

PS  Feodosia fell today.  There are reports of wounded Marines.

Ukraine! The Strength of Their Resilience and Weakness of Their State

The latest is interesting and exciting.

There has been shooting at Belbek in Crimea.  The Ukrainians refused to let the Russians roll in and fought back.  The Russians retreated and brought in company or two of armored fighting vehicles.  As to what happens next...its looking a bit grim.

Feodosia - the Ukrainian Marines - is looking VERY tense.  If the Ukrainian Marines are like our jarheads, I'd strongly recommend the occupiers stay as far away from their families as possible.  Give you hell would be an understatement.

There are reports of some of the Ukrainian naval ships attempting to break out.  No word on its success.  Probably not much.  More ships have been taken, of course.

Russia has admitted the sanctions are already biting.  A bond sale has been postponed due to the costs therein.

France is considering canceling the sale of the amphibious ships to Russia.  Germany has canceled contracts as well. Obama has given authority to cancel ones the US has as well.

The US is looking to increase its military support past rations.  Probably trucks and transport next, I'd guess.  

Ukraine signed the European Union association agreement.  Had Yankukovich done so, he'd likely still be president.

The IMF has stated they need a little longer to finish the negotiations with Ukraine and extended the deadline to the 25th.

Rumor has it Japan has ponied up $10 billion for infrastructure in Ukraine.  That needs confirmation and I have only seen that in Ukrainian sources.  If true, whoa.

Timoshenko has returned to Ukraine.  This is not a positive development.

There are trillions of rumors as to what's the next move in the chess game.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I place it at 50-50 whether or not Putin decides to get up from the table with his winnings.

Ukraine: A Wind Down or Wind UP?!?!

It seems that Kiev is going to concede Crimea to Russia.  The government has been making plans for the removal of troops from Crimea.  This is an acceptance the Ukrainian military is not in any shape to take on the Russians.  Years of neglect compounded by active maleficence by Yanukovich have left a handful of troops capable of taking on the Russians.  Even if they were super soldiers and killed 20 for every death, they would still be wiped out and Russia have plenty more troops.

The Russians are storming the Ukrainian ships which have been blockaded in the Ukrainian naval base at Sevastopol.  Three corvettes have been taken as has a command ship.

Brigades of Ukrainian troops have been stationed near Donetsk and Lugansk.  More at the crossings for Crimea.

There are continued provocations in the east.  Faux protestors, Putin's tourists, are continuing to attempt to storm buildings and try to get the east to react like Crimea.  This appears to be failing.  More of them are being rounded up and arrested.  

Ukraine is withdrawing from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The only way Ukraine will join the Eurasian Union at this point is after its conquest.

More sanctions are on their way, but the West's reaction has been tepid in many, many ways. 

The US, Britain, etc will be conducting exercises with the Ukrainian Army in July.  This follows the Polish Air Force in May.

Will Putin annex Transdniestria next?  Will he attempt to peel away the Ukrainian East and South?  

Is the crisis easing, winding down?  Or is it going to winding up and go boom?!

This is going to be rather more than an update.  After talking with some friends, I am concerned on a couple different levels.  The first is if there is not a solution found - assuming Putin feels the East and South are too much risk - in a couple administrations from now, the Ukrainians are going to go after Crimea in a spasm of revanchist anger.  They will probably lose.  45 million people with what will be a probably recently rebuilt economy is not going to be a match for a petrochemical powered economy and 140 million population.  Some method must be found to either remove Russia or have the Ukrainians hold onto what they have and accept the theft of their territory.

The first is to start arming the Ukrainians.  Wait?!  What?!  Yes, by giving them the tools they need to defend themselves and the training, but not the equipment to make an offensive.  Give them Stingers.  Give them TOW and Javelin missiles.  Bring them up to spec with NATO equipment.  Even go as far as to give them war stock generation one M-1 tanks, the original model and M-1Is.  We have some 4,000 of them.  You might even want to station a brigade of some country's forces in Ukraine.  Brit or French, to be honest.  The US would be too provocative.

Then entice Russia into two actions.  One, have them forgive the $3 billion loan they just gave.  Then pay for Crimea.  Compensate the displaced folks.  Pay for the seized warships.  I'd guess around $50 billion: this can wipe out Ukraine's debts and pour money into the economy.  Russia can afford it.

 The third method is for the European Union to lay out a path to Ukraine becoming a member.  Make it strict.  Make it doable.  Make it a complete ascension.  The Ukrainians will move heaven and earth for it. 

With the European influence, with the compensation for Crimea and a feeling of real security, then perhaps Ukraine can be on the track it needs, it wants.

Ukraine: War or Interwar?

The referendum took place.  The Crimeans supposedly elected to become part of Russia.  There were numerous irregularities (actual turn out much lower, journalists not allowed to watch vote counts, boycotts, dead people voting, people without Ukrainian passports voting, etc, etc).

Russia has since moved to annex Crimea.

Putin thumbed his nose at Crimea.

The Ukrainian government declared weapons free for the soldiers posted there.  A Ukrainian serviceman has since died from an assault by Russian forces in Simferopol.

A Crimean Tatar was tortured and killed.  He was since buried by his people.

The Russian equivalent of Glenn Beck made uber boastful claims Russia could reduce the US to radioactive ash.  The difference between Beck and this other twist is the Russian is formally backed by the Russian government.

The West has stated it will retaliate with more sanctions though Europe is pretty fractured.  The sanctions put in place so far have been pretty lame.  This goes for the US as well.

The French have announced they may cancel the amphibious warship contract with the Russians.

The Ukrainians are vowing to get back Crimea and seize the assets of Russian companies and Russian government in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have shifted their forces to the south and east.  The 26th airborne (iirc) has been seen outside Donetsk.  Likewise, a number of armored vehicles were moved there as well from armoured brigades.

The Turks have warned they will close the Bosporus to Russian ships and shipping, effectively blockading the Russians in the Black Sea.

There have been massive hacker attacks on Russia and Ukraine, but only on government websites.  I am not sure whether this is fortunate or not.

The Russians have supposedly planned a nuclear reactor for Crimea.

The Japanese have waded in and started condemning the Russians fwiw as well.

My personal opinion is little will happen.  The Russians will take Crimea.  The West will impose some sanctions and cancel other contracts and further developments with the Russians.  The mainland Ukrainians will unite for a change and do moderately well, with the help of the West.  The West is seeming pretty toothless at the moment.  I would hope Obama would release more oil from the reserve and make some concessions with the Saudis (though they are not happy with him) to up production to reduce the price of oil...

The short term initiative is in the hands of the Russians.  They can stop where they are or they can take the south and East of Ukraine.  I call it 50-50 whether they are really done. 

Ukraine will likely not do much if the Russians do not.  However, I do predict they will not take their kick in the 'nads by the Russians well.  They are likely in the future to try to take back Crimea from the Russians.  it won't be the administration of Turch/Yats, but probably the follow-on or the one afterwards.  They'll make a play for Crimea in a revanchist spasm.  I felt this was like post-WW2 Germany.  However, a friend pointed out while it does feel interwar, that it felt like Ukraine was in the position of Poland, rather than Germany.