Despite political opposition and apparently contradictory ministerial statements, it appears increasingly likely that Australia will replace its Collins-class submarines with 4,200-tonne Soryu-class submarines built in Japan.
Amid intense media speculation about such an agreement, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said on 8 September that a decision on replacing the six Australian-built, 3,400-tonne Collins-class submarines under Project Sea 1000 would be based on capability, value for money, and regional rather than industrial policy.
"The most important thing is to get the best and most capable submarines at a reasonable price for the Australian taxpayer," he said.
The current life-of-type of the Collins fleet runs from 2024 to 2031, although there are no apparent issues to prevent some or all of the class having service life extended by up to 10 years.
Several sources have put the cost of 10 Japanese-constructed submarines at about AUD20 billion (USD18.3 billion), compared with an estimated AUD36 billion for an Australian-designed and built replacement.
On 9 September Defence Minister David Johnston said the bulk of what he described as "the Australian work" on future submarines would be carried out in South Australia - a remark which an authoritative source subsequently clarified as referring to maintenance, not construction.
Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten meanwhile accused Abbott of putting Australia's national security at risk by considering the acquisition of completed submarines from Japan, and pledged to cancel any such agreement should the Labor Party win the next election - due in August 2016.
Although a decision on Sea 1000 had been anticipated as part of a Defence White Paper due to be published in mid-2015, there is now speculation that selection of the Japanese option could be announced as early as the Group of 20 leaders' meeting in Brisbane in November.
In April Johnston described the Soryu class as the platform closest to Australia's requirements and repeated earlier remarks about Australia's interest in the type's drive train.
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2 comments:
The fact that buying Japanese subs is actually possible is a good indication of the loosening of Japan's arms export policy. For the majority of the post WW2 period export controls were such that, while theoretically possible, exports of Japanese military equipment were effectively banned. Now the Japanese find themselves wanting to do what other countries have done, export weapons to reduce the purchase cost to their own military.
That Australia is considering purchasing Japanese subs from, y'know, Japan says bucket loads, too.
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