Ukraine!

This country really ought to be a musical.  A dark and scary one, but a musical all the same.  

Biggest news is that Yanukovich has been abandoned and on the run.  He was Kharkiv but that mayor went to Kiev.  Then he was Donetsk and tried to leave the country.  Flight permission was denied.  Last rumor was he was in Crimea.  He may be seeking refuge with the Russians in Sevastopol.

What will Crimea do?  That's a sticky question.  There have been a few calls for Russian protection.  Then again, that was in...Sevastopol.  The east has been willing to cooperate with Kiev at least for now.

I was right about the army though: Yanukovich did call them out.  I was wrong insomuch as even the Donetsk and other eastern troops refused.  That's beyond awesome.

What will Russia do is another big question.

What will Europe do is another.

What will the US do?

Finally, will the Euromaidan be able to work together?  or will we end up with another failed revolution like the Orange Revolution?

Ukraine may be Having a Revolution

This is from the Euromaidan twitter feed.  The picture is entitled: regions in alliance with the opposition.  They had an earlier picture like this which stated the red were places the government offices had been taken over by the opposition and the light red was where the offices were under seige by the opposition.  There are bits which are coming out of the feeds which seem to be accurate: you can even watch the confrontations.  However, there seems to be a lot of ... overstatement and perhaps even propaganda: if snipers were working the crowd, then, um, I'd expect a lot more dead and the battle on Grushevskogo in Kyiv seemed to have a single watercannon being used last night when I was watching.  Perhaps the gov embezzled all the funds for it?

As of right now, Klitschko et al are requesting the cease fire be continued.  Yanukovich isn't giving any ground.

However, if the opposition, or at least protestors, are taking over the government buildings in the regions, its almost assured that Yanukovich will have to react.  Most likely he'll react with an iron first.  The question then is whether or not this will be like when Yeltsin climbed on the tank during the hardliner coup in the Soviet Union?  Or will it be like Tienanmen Square?  If Crimea, Odessa or Donetsk were to fall to the protestors, then I'd say Yanukovich is just plain toast.  If not, he has a base of support.

Drawing a parallel with Yeltsin's stunt brings to mind an unlikely, but possible outcome: the Soviet Union dissolved then.  Might we see East and South Ukraine divorce the West?  

So, is Ukraine in the process of a revolution?  An Euromaidan Revolution?

Here's also an interesting take from the Business Insider.

Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution: Gaining Steam or Self Flagellation?

Thousands of protesters besieged government buildings in Ukraine's capital on Monday to demand the ouster of the prime minister and his Cabinet, as anger at the president's decision to ditch a deal for closer ties with the European Union gripped other parts of the country and threatened his rule.

Local officials in western Ukraine have openly sided with the protesters, while the major national television channels have scaled back their support for the government. In Parliament, President Viktor Yanukovych's party has suffered defections, potentially putting the government at risk of losing a no-confidence vote that could come as early as Tuesday.

With protesters blocking entrances to the Cabinet and central bank buildings, Yanukovych called European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and asked if he could send a delegation to discuss some aspects of the association agreement, Barroso said in a statement. Barroso said he agreed. The commission refused to say when such a meeting might take place.

Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski said that the EU dialogue with Ukraine was being put back on track with the participation of Ukraine's first deputy prime minister, Serhiy Arbuzov, and that it included possible financial support.

The protests began more than a week ago, but were galvanized when riot police used force to disperse demonstrators early Saturday. A protest rally the next day drew hundreds of thousands, who filled a huge central square.

It was unclear whether the opposition would get the 226 votes it needs in the 450-seat parliament to oust Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his Cabinet. The opposition controls about 170 seats, but independents hold 35 more and the governing Party of Regions was shedding support. At least three of its lawmakers quit in protest and one of them, Inna Bohoslovska, previously a vocal government supporter, called on other legislators to leave the party. A top Agriculture Ministry official also resigned Monday.

link.

Sean at Sean's Russia Blog worries Ukrainians are setting themselves up with unrealistic expectations as to what it means to be in Europe. With good reason I would say.  My personal experience is there are a lot of Ukrainians who build their expectations up unrealistically and then when reality fails to match up, a deep cynicism and unwillingness to attempt the problem again.  Or a rejection of the possibility.  I hope Ukrainians do not do this with regards to the European Union.  They will not be transformed overnight into Germany.  Or even Poland.  This is going to be a long, hard slog.  Signing the agreement is one step on a 100 km road.

Ukrainian Opposition Claims 350,000 Protesters at Rally, Gets Provocative

Ukrainian opposition leaders called on Sunday for President Viktor Yanukovich and his government to resign at a rally of about 350,000 people, the biggest protest in the capital Kiev since the "Orange Revolution" of nine years ago.

On a day of huge emotion, which also marked the anniversary of Ukraine's 1991 referendum on independence from the Soviet Union, opposition leaders denounced Yanukovich for walking away from a pact offered by the European Union and swinging trade policy back towards Russia.

"They stole the dream," heavyweight boxer-turned-opposition politician Vitaly Klitschko told the crowds on Independence Square.

"If this government does not want to fulfill the will of the people, then there will be no such government, there will be no such president. There will be a new government and a new president," declared Klitschko, himself a contender for the next presidential election due in 2015.

link.

A General Strike: New Chapter in 50 Shades of Orange? Or Pointless?

Ukraine's political opposition said on Saturday it would set up a headquarters of national resistance following clashes between police and pro-Europe protesters and had begun to organize a country-wide strike.

"We have taken a common decision to form a headquarters of national resistance and we have begun preparations for an all-Ukraine national strike," former economy minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, one of three opposition leaders, told journalists.

He said the opposition parties sought the resignation of the government and early parliamentary and presidential elections to force out President Viktor Yanukovich.

link.

Those of you who have followed this blog know I am not a fan of Yanukovich.  He's a crook and a monster on a personal level.  You also know I am not  a fan of Timoshenko (Tymoshenko) either: the woman is a Ukrainian flavoured Ann Coulter.  Frankly, in many ways, Ukraine has developed into the situation which it has earned: the pettiness of its politics are obscene.  You think the US has dysfunctional political parties?  The worst of the Republicans and the Democrats ought to go take positions as interns at the Rada.

However, ranting aside...

It ought to be damned apparent Ukraine is under tremendous pressure right now.  Russia, which has the economic strings still, has enormous influence.  Putin does NOT want Ukraine to become part of the European Union.  He wants Ukraine to be part of the Eurasian Union, what some are calling the Soviet Union v2.0.  Truthfully, if I were Putin, with Putin's biases, I'd want Ukraine to be part of it, too: I have food security, a ethnically related population which I can absorb easier than any other than perhaps Belarus and I have several other - if developed - points for economic growth as well.  Just think!  1/3 of Ukrainians would probably uproot for better jobs.  Russian and Ukrainian are pretty close...so, 15 million workers!  Huzzah!

With Russia's strings pulling on Ukraine, the EU ought to have been willing to make guarantees they would step up for Ukraine...if they felt Ukraine was as important as is often implied in the media.  One journalist once said, without Ukraine Russia is not an empire.  If the EU wanted to defang Russia in that regard, in that manner, they ought to have been willing to step up.  They did not.  What message does that send?

Then there are some of the requires which Ukraine was required to meet in the agreement.  To Europeans, to even most Americans and Canadians and many others, they seem reasonable.  However, despite what Ukrainians and Europeans often state ("We get along so well because we are European!") Western European - even European Union as a whole values - and Ukrainian are vastly different.  While these ought to be included eventually, to do so in the first round was less than brilliant.

To make matters worse, Merkel's rant at Yanukovich was ... stupid, frankly.  Pride is a huge thing for Ukrainians. 

Ranting at the EU done.

Now for Ukraine.  Good grief.  Yanukovich's pride and paranoia are ridiculous.  If he thinks he can postpone the pain or make the EU come round to his position, he's mistaken.  He must give ground.  Yet his pride...he cannot.  Sadly, he of all people ought to know by doing this he is emboldening Putin.  The next time will not be better.  It will not be easier.  The thumb screws will be worse.  He'll be frakked even more.  You bet he's going to get slammed...unless of course he really does want a part of the Eurasian Union.  Has Putin given him some sort of promise?  There were secret talks... I may be going too far there.

As for the Opposition.  You folks are dumber than a sack of sand (I had something else in mind, but I try to keep this blog relatively family friendly).  You were in power.  You had the opportunity to reshape and pull Ukraine into the EU.  YET.  YOU.  BLEW.  IT.  Don't just blame Yuschenko.  ALL OF YOU WERE TO BLAME.  Petty squabbles and grabs for power and alienating anyone who might disagree without rather than compromising with them (a classic Ukrainian pitfall: agree with me or I will beat you into doing so!!!) made governing impossible.  Now you want to trigger a second orange revolution.   I doubt you will succeed, the Ukrainian people are even less enamored with those which have tried and failed than the Republican Party, but even if you do, it's going to be torture for the country either way.

While titillating to read about, exciting for the moment, in the end, in reality, an attempt at a second Orange Revolution looks to be more like a whole lot of painful torture.  Pain, not fun or excitement.  

Mr Klitschko:don't be Mr Grey.

(and stay IN ukraine, for goodness sake)

Pro-European Union Protests in Ukraine: a new Orange Revolution Brewing or Occupy Kiev Fizzle?

(both sides claim the other stinks. Or maybe something else)

Pro-Western Ukrainians on Sunday held the biggest protest rally in Kiev since the 2004 Orange Revolution, urging the government to sign a historic pact with the European Union and clashing with police.

Tens of thousands filled the Square of Europe in central Kiev to demonstrate against the decision of President Viktor Yanukovych's government to scrap a plan to sign an Association Agreement that would have deepened ties with the European Union.

Hundreds of protesters attempted to storm the government building, letting off smoke bombs. Some used the sticks from their protest signs against policemen and shouted "Revolution!".

But riot police forced them back with batons and tear gas, an AFP correspondent said. Police said that one member of the security forces was injured.

Police put attendance at the main rally at 23,000 people. The opposition gave a higher estimate, saying more than 100,000 turned out.

The centre of Kiev was covered in a sea of protesters waving EU and Ukrainian flags who marched on the Square of Europe from the statue of Ukraine's national poet Taras Shevchenko.

The rally was by far the biggest in Kiev since the Orange Revolution nine years ago, which resulted in the annulment of presidential election results initially claimed by Yanukovych.

Opposition leaders vowed to keep a continuous protest in the square to force the government to sign the EU deal at a summit in Vilnius next week. Several thousand were still in the square listening to live music late in the evening and some put up tents to stay on.

'We are not the USSR'

link.