In some ways, Ukraine reminds me of two armies in a meeting engagement. The move for against the Little Green Men coincided with the Russians moving on further targets: Mariupol and Odessa. Kramatorsk is abandoned by the LGM, while they move elsewhere.
Donetsk prepares for its 'referendum' and it seems the ballots have been printed. Let's see if they will have the referendum or the Ukrainians will crash their party. Here's hoping for the latter.
At Slavyansk, the Ukrainians are making progress, but less than what would be hoped. Apparently, the troops are under very specific orders not to harm civilians. While they seem to be killing a number of the LGM, they are taking a long time in doing so...which allows the infection to spread. Supposedly, in Slavyansk, they are facing 800 LGM and levees. Ukraine lost another Mi-24, this
The battle for Andreevka has begun. Ukrainian troops are engaging.
Battles for Mariupol are underway.
The Ukrainians replaced their top brass.
Things look even more dire than the last report. There is little progress, but lots of decay.
I give it a 50-50 chance of Ukraine staying in one piece before May 25th.
I can hope I am wrong though and the Ukrainian army will let loose. I'd love to see the Marines tear loose on the LGM in Mariupol.
2 comments:
I am hesitant to ask this, so please take it as non-hostile.
Why hope for war? Even ignoring the announcements of the last day, it would seem that the only reasonable course of action for Ukraine is non-violent. The cost of losing is less than the cost of a war, of course; but even better, you run the chance of winning. Start killing civilians, and you guarantee a war that you will lose.
Noel
Because, IMNSHO, they only have a chance winning if they can crush the Little Green Men. The slow, 'peaceful' process is /not/ winning.
And based on my experience with the culture and people cannot win.
Perhaps I am having a complete failure of imagination: how could they /possibly/ win if they go the peaceful route? Didn't they try that with Crimea?
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