Tuesday, May 13, 2008

stating the obvious

Continuing the meme:

Hillary should through in the towel rather than waste the money at this point. All she is doing is hurting her party. Speaking as a Republican, by all means, keep firing away at Obama and making a mess. As an American that would like to see the two "presumptive" nominees contrasting and debating the issues, McCain vs Obama.

Don't believe me? Go play with CNN's Delegate Counter. The best case scenario for Hillary is if she walks away with 80% of tonight, 80% of Kentucky, 50% (and change) of Oregon (but unlikely), and 80% of Puerto Rico. Those are very unrealistic numbers, but even so under that very unrealistic spread Hillary needs 175 of the Democratic Party's superdelegates to get the nomination. Obama? 85. The more realistic scenario forces Hillary to get nearly 200 superdelegates to Obama's 60 or less.

There are 241 remaining at this point.

Barring vast stupidity on the part of Obama's campaign, or the Clintons' doing some deep dark magic with the super delegates, this is all but done.

I don't think Clinton is intentionally damaging the party, fwiw. She's just stubborn and really wants to be Prez.

Now we need a Veep check, please.

(hat-tip to Carlos)


Zach said...

I really wish she's just go away. The second she entered the race with her "Oh, I'm totally the next President" attitude, I kept hoping she's phail. And phail she has, yet she persists. Some would call that determination.

I call it stubbornness. McCaine must be having the time of his life, watching the two Dems tear each other to shreds.

Anonymous said...

oh gee willickers... why do we even have to vote these days when we have such cool things as the "delegate counter"... whatever happened to the demo convention????

no wonder why all the other countries think we're idiots...

Will Baird said...

C'mon, anon.

Let's look at the numbers again.

Kentucky goes 66% to Clinton: she gets 34 delegates and Obama gets 17.

Montana and SD go slightly to Obama so he gets 9 and 8 respectively while Clinton gets 7 and 7.

Oregon's polling really strongly for Obama: he's 20 pts ahead last I read, so call it 60% his favor. He'll walk away with 31 and Clinton 21.

If Clinton gets 80% of Puerto Rico, she'll end up with 45 delegates and Obama with 10.

Add those numbers up and Obama is short of the nomination by a mere 46 delegates and Clinton is short by nearly 200! If Clinton "only" gets 60% in PR, then its even worse and Obama is 34 delegates. If the rest of Edwards' delegates follow the leader, the leap to win for Obama gets even smaller.

This is over already and has been over for some time. I am sure that it will be over - officially! - before the convention. Why in the world Clinton is wasting that money is beyond me. There are plenty of things that you can spend $20 million on still that are more worthwhile.