Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Ukraine: Drama for the People!

In that, the country has definitely delivered for the Ukrainian people!

First off, at least as far as our Risk Map, it seems the opposition is losing ground again.  Poltava appears to be back in the hands of the PoR.  The edge of Euromaidan's strength seems to be the Dnieper River.  That makes it more an West vs East game, which is a loser, in a way, for Euromaidan.  They need the East to buy in.

Secondly, the amnesty law passed by Ukraine's Rada states it only applies to those that leave the buildings in the next 15 days.  If they do not,

Third, Kravchuk, like the ghost of meltdowns past, warns Ukraine is on the cusp of Civil War.

As though echoing that sentiment, the opposition leaders have stated Yanukovich must step down, snap Presidential elections called and the Constitution returned to the 2004 version (how many are there?!).  There are threats the opposition will 'attack.'  Whatever that may mean.

There have been some odd rumblings with respect to the ukrainian army.  One I saw claimed any officer which had a problem with restoring order ought to resign.  Not a good sign that.

However!  There are reports of folks resigning from the government. 

Europe is starting to weigh in and rumors have it that banker problems in the West might have helped turn down the heat in Kyiv.

On the other hand, Medvedev and Putin are starting to growl: a delay in the next tranche of the bailout and the gas price cut are on hold until the next government of Ukraine is sworn in.  Is Putin throwing Yanukovich under the bus?

OTGH, I think Obama's mention of Ukraine in the State of the Union address produced the SQUEE heard 'round the world.

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