Saturday, September 05, 2015

More Speculation About the Long Range Strike Bomber

For months the defense industry has been held hostage, watching closely as the Pentagon weighs a decision that will shape the aerospace world for decades to come.

The Air Force is poised to announce who will build its next-generation bomber, and the competition is steep. The two teams represent three of the five top defense contractors in the country: Northrop Grumman, builder of the B-2 stealth bomber, and a teamed Boeing and Lockheed Martin. A contract was due first in the summer, then early fall. But now there are whispers it could slip into October.

New information shared last week reveals what is behind the delay. The Air Force is using an unusual acquisition strategy, led by a shadowy office, to procure the bomber. Meanwhile, the competing designs are vastly more mature than previously known, to a level nearly unheard of in a pre-award program.

75 Howard, San Francisco, CA...Approved







link.

I hate that cube crap in architecture.  bleh.

The Role of Hell Creek Formation in Understanding the KT/K-Pg Mass Extinction

The Hell Creek Formation and its contribution to the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction: A short primer

Authors:

Fastovsky et al

Abstract:

Although it represents but one geographic data point, the uppermost Maastrichtian Hell Creek Formation (HCF), exposed in the upper Great Plains of the North American craton, remains the most studied source for understanding the final ∼1.5 Myr of the Mesozoic Era in the terrestrial realm. Because it lies conformably below the earliest Paleocene Fort Union Formation, and together these two units preserve a rich fauna and flora, much of what is understood about the terrestrial Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary comes from this sequence.

The HCF has been reconstructed as an expansive, fluvially drained, low coastal plain, built out, to the west, against the Laramide Orogen, and to the east, against the ultimate transgression (Cannonball) of the Western Interior Sea. Its meandering rivers and moist soils supported a multi-tiered angiosperm-dominated flora and rich insect and vertebrate faunas, including dinosaurs, crocodilians, squamates, turtles, and mammals. A dramatic facies change representing the initiation of catastrophic flooding is preserved, within available levels precision, at the K–Pg boundary.

High-precision stratigraphy has proven difficult in this lenticular fluvial system. Where present, the boundary can be recognized by the bipartite boundary claystone; otherwise, palynostratigraphy has proven a powerful tool. Numerical dates have been successfully obtained from in tonsteins at the boundary and above, in the Fort Union; however, these have proven elusive below the boundary within the HCF. The K–Pg boundary in this region is dated at 66.043 Ma (Renne et al., 2013). Magnetostratigraphic studies have been carried out in the HCF; although all but one have lacked numerical dates, these have been used for correlations of widespread, disjunct exposures and for the estimation of sedimentation rates.

The palynoflora is largely homogenous through the HCF; at the K–Pg boundary, it shows an abrupt ∼30% extinction. This makes it a powerful tool for identification of the K–Pg boundary, although because the boundary is identified on absence of Cretaceous taxa rather than presence of earliest Paleocene taxa, several competing methods have been applied to identifying the K–Pg boundary using pollen.

The macroflora, consisting largely of leaves, consists of three successive floras, showing increasing diversity through the HCF. The ultimate of these three floras undergoes an abrupt 57% extinction; taken as a whole, however, the macroflora undergoes a 78% extinction at the K–Pg boundary.

The best data available for dinosaurs – including archaic Aves – show an abrupt extinction. By contrast, salamanders and other lissamphibians, as well as chelonians, cross the boundary virtually without perturbation. Squamates appear to have suffered significant extinctions at the K–Pg boundary, as did euselachians (elasmobranchs) and insects. Mammals suffered a 75% extinction; however, some of this figure cannot be shown to have occurred in less than the last 500 kyr of the Cretaceous, and thus has been potentially attributable to causes other than a bolide impact. Taken together, the survivorship patterns are concordant with the catastrophic inception of ubiquitous flooding characterizing the K–Pg boundary.

While the key K–Pg boundary question in the HCF was once the rate of the biotic extinction, it has moved to the distinction between single-cause scenarios, with the Chicxulub bolide as agent of extinction, and multi-cause scenarios, uniting habitat partitioning, Deccan flood-basalt volcanism, climate change, competition, and bolide impact. Not every potential environmental perturbation need be a mechanism for the extinction: parsimony and the data continue to be concordant with a bolide impact as the single agent of the terrestrial K–Pg mass extinction.

What Crocodylomorphs Survived the KT/K-Pg Asteroid Impact Extinction in Europe

Review of the Late Cretaceous-early Paleogene crocodylomorphs of Europe: Extinction patterns across the K-PG boundary

Authors:

Puértolas-Pascual et al

Abstract:

Although the European dinosaur succession during the latest Cretaceous and its relationship with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction has been the focus of recent work, other continental vertebrates, such as crocodylomorphs, have received less attention. The European continental record of crocodylomorphs in general, and of eusuchians in particular, is relatively dense through the Maastrichtian until the K-Pg boundary. Traditionally it has been argued that continental crocodylomorphs were minimally impacted by the K-Pg extinction, but they were substantially affected in Europe with the disappearance of endemic eusuchians such as Hylaeochampsidae, Allodaposuchus and their close relatives, and non-eusuchians such as Doratodon or Theriosuchus. Despite extensive sampling in Danian continental deposits, only scarce fragmentary crocodylomorph remains have been cited. It is not until the late Paleocene and Eocene that a recovery in continental crocodylomorphs is observed. The presence of taxa such as planocraniids, the alligatoroids Diplocynodon and Hassiacosuchus, and stem crocodyloids during this period provide the first reliable continental records of Crocodylia in Europe and is best explained by post-extinction immigration from Asia or North America. By contrast, marine forms such as Thoracosaurus are found on both sides of the K-Pg boundary in Europe. The adaptation of these marine animals to different environments, from shallow seas to more transitional or fluvial environments, could be the key to their success and survival across the K-Pg boundary, as seen in other marine crocodylomorph clades such as Dyrosauridae.

A New "Megaraptorid" Theropod Found in Albian Cretaceous Australia


A large-clawed theropod (Dinosauria: Tetanurae) from the Lower Cretaceous of Australia and the Gondwanan origin of megaraptorid theropods

Authors:

Bell et al

Abstract:

Megaraptoridae comprises a clade of enigmatic Gondwanan theropods with characteristic hypertrophied claws on the first and second manual digits. The majority of megaraptorids are known from South America, although a single genus (Australovenator) plus additional indeterminate material is also known from Australia. This clade has a controversial placement among theropods, and recently has been interpreted alternatively as a carcharodontosaurian or a tyrannosauroid lineage. We describe new fragmentary but associated postcranial remains from the opal fields of Lightning Ridge (middle-Albian, Griman Creek Formation) in north-central New South Wales. The new unnamed taxon exhibits a number of unusual features that suggest the presence of a hitherto unrecognized Australian megaraptorid. From an Australian perspective, the Lightning Ridge taxon predates Australovenator by c.10Ma and is minimally coeval with megaraptoran material reported from the Eumeralla Formation of Victoria (but potentially 6.1–9.5 Ma younger). It is also notable as the largest predatory dinosaur yet identified from Australia and is only the second theropod known from more than a single element. A Bayesian phylogenetic approach integrating morphological, stratigraphic and palaeogeographic information tested both the carcharodontosaurian and tyrannosauroid placements for Megaraptora. Regardless of the preferred placement among Tetanurae, rigorous palaeobiogeographic analyses support an Asian origin of Megaraptora in the latest Jurassic (about 150-135 Ma), an Early Cretaceous (about 130-121 Ma) divergence of the Gondwanan lineage leading to Megaraptoridae, and an Australian root for megaraptorid radiation. These results indicate that Australia’s Cretaceous dinosaur fauna did not comprise simply of immigrant taxa but was a source for complex two-way interchange between Australia-Antarctica-South America leading to the evolution of at least one group of apex predatory dinosaurs in Gondwana.

The Stealthy Franken Super Hornet is Something Odd



go read.

Within our Light Cone


New Ediacaran Doushantuo Embryo-like fossils ARE Early Metazoans, Specifically Megasphaera

Are the new Ediacaran Doushantuo embryo-like fossils early metazoans? A reply

Authors:

Chen et al

Abstract:

Chen et al. (2014) described a suite of one-celled, Parapandorina-stage, Megaclonophycus-stage (some with dyads and tetrads), and matryoshka-stage fossils from the Doushantuo Formation, and interpreted them as representing a sequence of ontogenetic stages of the animal embryo-like fossil Megasphaera. Tang (2015) argues that the matryoshkas might have been parasites or symbionts, rather than developmental products of dyads and tetrads in Megaclonophycus-stage fossils. Assessing Tang's (2015) arguments against available evidence, we conclude that the matryoshkas likely represent an ontogenetic stage of Megasphaera. As such, they have the potential to illuminate the developmental biology, life cycle, and phylogenetic affinity of the enigmatic fossil Megasphaera.

Friday, September 04, 2015

Stealth Saga #4: Program Problems and the Bomber Question


Russia's V. M. Myasishchev Experimental Design Bureau has come out with the concept stealthy MALE UAV called "Overview-1."  (see above pic)

Some are claiming a variant of the J-20 is going to be China's next bomber.

The Indian Air Force's problems with fighter acquisition are detailed.

Two F-22s arrived in Estonia.

The first two combat coded F-35As have arrived at Hill Air Force Base.

The two competing teams for the Long Range Strike Bomber (USAF B-3) have submitted their designs.  The LRS-B designs are supposed to be extremely mature at this point, far more so than most would expect at this stage.  There are rumors the Texas sighting of a triangular aircraft was an LRSB prototype, but the air force has denied the LRSB has flown.  Sources are now saying a decision is expected in October, yet another slip.  Forbes gives an overview for those just getting spun up on the program.



There is a strange case of a stealthy 'Franken Hornet' in the Boneyard.   Alpha Foxtrot speculates this was a stealthy UAV/UCAV (*cough*drone*cough*) built to have some commonality with the Super Hornets on the CVN flight decks.  Doesn't look like it worked out.

I missed back in June a release by the US Air Force for a fast, cheap and reusable strike UCAV demonstration presolicitation.  Stealthy?  Dunno.  Probably, but it won't be cheap then.

Has a Window Closed and the BRICS Bounced off?






Never gloat.  Triumphantlism never ends well.

I have to wonder though.  What-if China's growth is really only 6%?

Could we see China growing at 3% in 2019?

link.

Volcanic Sulfur *NOT* Responsible for Early Martian Greenhouse Climate

Sulfur in the early martian atmosphere revisited: Experiments with a 3-D Global Climate Model

Authors:

Kerber et al

Abstract:

Volcanic SO2 in the martian atmosphere has been invoked as a way to create a sustained or transient greenhouse during early martian history. Many modeling studies have been performed to test the feasibility of this hypothesis, resulting in a range of conclusions, from highly feasible to highly improbable. In this study we perform a wide range of simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Generic Global Climate Model (GCM) in order to place earlier results into context and to explore the sensitivity of model outcomes to parameters such as SO2 mixing ratio, atmospheric H2O content, background atmospheric pressure, and aerosol size, abundance, and composition. We conclude that SO2 is incapable of creating a sustained greenhouse on early Mars, and that even in the absence of aerosols, local and daily temperatures rise above 273 K for only for limited periods with favorable background CO2 pressures. In the presence of even small amounts of aerosols, the surface is dramatically cooled for realistic aerosol sizes. Brief, mildly warm conditions require the co-occurrence of many improbable factors, while cooling is achieved for a wide range of model parameters. Instead of causing warming, sulfur in the martian atmosphere may have caused substantial cooling, leading to the end of clement climate conditions on early Mars.

How Enceladus' Geysers are Tied to its Geological Features

ENCELADUS' GEYSERS: RELATION TO GEOLOGICAL FEATURES

Authors:

Helfenstein et al

Abstract:


We apply histogram analysis, photogeological methods, and tidal stress modeling to Porco et al.'s survey of 101 Enceladus South Polar Basin geysers and their three-dimensional orientations to test if the jet azimuths are influenced by their placement relative to surface morphology and tectonic structures. Geysers emplaced along the three most active tiger stripe fractures (Damascus Sulcus, Baghdad Sulcus, and Cairo Sulcus) occur in local groupings with relatively uniform nearest-neighbor separation distances (~5 km). Their placement may be controlled by uniformly spaced en echelon Riedel-type shear cracks originating from left-lateral strike-slip fault motion inferred to occur along tiger stripes. The spacing would imply a lithosphere thickness of ~5 km in the vicinity of the tiger stripes. The orientations of tilted geyser jets are not randomly distributed; rather their azimuths correlate with the directions either of tiger stripes, cross-cutting fractures, or else fine-scale local tectonic fabrics. Diurnal tidal stress modeling suggests that periodic changes of plume activity are significantly affected by cross-cutting fractures that open and close at different times than the tiger stripes that they intersect. We find evidence of sub-kilometer scale morphological modification of surface geological features surrounding geysers from sublimation-aided erosion, and ablation, and scouring. We propose that the simultaneous crushing and shearing action of periodic transpressional tidal stress on ice condensing on the inside walls of geyser conduits is the mechanism that extrudes the peculiar, paired narrow ridges known as "shark fins" that flank the medial tiger stripe fissures. We present a gallery of high-resolution image mosaics showing the placement of all the jets in their source region and consequently their geological context.

Climate Driven Ecological Instability Greatly Impacted Hominin Evolution

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution

Authors:

Potts et al

Abstract:

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin—all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological, sedimentary, and paleolandscape evidence illustrates the potential influence of prolonged high variability on the origin and spread of critical adaptations and lineages in the evolution of Homo. The growing body of data concerning environmental dynamics supports the idea that the evolution of adaptability in response to climate and overall ecological instability represents a unifying theme in hominin evolutionary history.

Ukraine War Update: переворот! переворот! Есть слухи правдой?

There are wild rumors that Pushilin has led a coup d'etat in the Donbass People's Republic.

Andrei Purgin and Aleksei Aleksandrov are being blocked from returning from Russia to the DNR.

We wait and see what this portends or if its even real.

Update 12:20 PM PT: the ruling council of the DNR is in an emergency meeting.

Update 13:10 PM PT: Zakharchenko is in Donetsk, but not participating in the meeting.  Pushilin is chairing that meeting.  Purgin's #2 is in their admin building...that is not surrounded by security forces.  Censors are sweeping for comments about Purgin and treason on Russophonic social media and deleting them.  That last may be a rumor.

Update 13:15 PM PT:  Claims are 100 paratroopers entered the admin building.

Update 13:35 PM PT:  Pushilin has officially replaced Purgin as the Speaker of the DNR parliament.  The MPs had to surrender their phones before going in.  Purgin is reported to be arrested.

Update: 15:10 PM PT: The replacement has been confirmed all over the place.  Russian media especially.  Supposedly, the reason was Purgin was planning a coup (!) but officially for improperly executing the duties of his office.  No more updates on this until at least 22:00 due to the fact there's a 10 hour difference.

 Update: 17:30 PM PT: Some sources are calling this an Akhmetov backed action.

Watch China Destroy Okinawa, Conquer Taiwan in "Island Retaking"


The Nuts and Bolts of Cap and Trade


The Curious Case of Tribrachidium "Boneyards" From Ediacaran NeoProterozoic South Africa

Paleoecology of the enigmatic Tribrachidium: New data from the Ediacaran of South Australia

Authors:

Hall et al

Abstract:

Tribrachidium is a monospecific genus of the Ediacara biota found globally. In the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite, Flinders Ranges of South Australia, the spatial distribution of Tribrachidium across the seafloor is best described as patchy. Although Tribrachidium is the dominant fossil on two of the twenty-six beds currently excavated and is present in large numbers on another, the genus most commonly occurs as no more than a handful of specimens on a bed. Tribrachidium size frequency distributions of each of the three beds with more than 5 specimens are all statistically distinguishable from one another. Additionally, the size range on any given bed is smaller than the overall size range observed for the genus. These patterns suggest that these organisms lived in populations composed of single generations. The beds with numerous Tribrachidium come from different facies and are characterized by the presence of dissimilar mixes of taxa and textured organic surfaces, indicating that Tribrachidium was a generalist, able to adapt to a variety environments. Uniquely, the base or internal structure of Tribrachidium is also found preserved in both positive and negative relief as a sequence of concentric ridges on beds where Tribrachidium is the dominant genus. The most parsimonious explanation for the presence of these concentric ridge fossils is that they are the fossilized form of a Tribrachidium preserved when the organism was buried upside-down, flipped over, or dead and partially decayed prior to burial.

Thursday, September 03, 2015

Robopocalypse Report #19: Mail Delivering Drones! Starfish Killing Robots!?! And Machine Learning to Pick Fashion Models?!?!?!

With a drone, a Brit reinvents the time lapse videos.

In Spain, they used drones to monitor tree plantations.

And it had to happen, someone went fishing with a drone...and he actually caught something.

Drone startup Measure has gotten permission from the FAA to fly a huge fleet of drones, 324 of them!

Poway, California outside of San Diego has passed a temporary ordnance banning drones from its airspace.

Finland has drones already delivering the mail.

Wilbur-Ellis is testing drones for agriculture use as well.

As reported earlier, a chimp took out a drone with a stick and now the scientists discuss the implications of the chimp's action.

Terrafugia, a flying car startup, has requested an FAA waiver for a UAV version of its flying car, the TF-X.  If it does not get it, they are threatening to move its work outside of the US.  I have found when companies, especially startups, get into threatening mode, its normally because they are not going to get what they want because they are not willing to do the work and are throwing a temper tantrum.

A Japanese insurance company is targeting drones.

CNBC talks about why its so hard for the US to make rules for drones.

The self driving car's smaller sibling, the self driving golf cart, seems to be a near complete success in Singapore.

Uber REALLY needs the self driving car, well, now.

Google's Self Driving cars are having issues...with human drivers.

Self driving cars are being called a good investment.

Huffington Post has caught up to my concerns about hacking self driving cars.

UC Berkeley has had a breakthrough in lasers (and here) that will reduce the size, weight and cost of LIDARs, the primary sensor of self driving cars. 

With the help of noninvasion spinal stimulation and an exoskeleton, a completely paralyzed man has been able to voluntarily control his legs for the first time since becoming paralyzed.

Ekso has developed an upper body exoskeleton that will be going on sale in 2016.

The exoskeleton market is expected to grow to $2.1 billion by 2021.

In general robotics, while not exactly with an Austrian accent or the Terminator Franchise,  a starfish killing robot is being tested at the Great Barrier Reef.

Also in the sea, scientists have demonstrated a type of floating robot called a MERMAID, for listening for undersea earthquakes.

The Australian brick laying bot, SAM, can do three times as much work as a human bricklayer and currently costs a half million dollars.

 UC Berkeley has developed a preschool (no, not kidding) for robots.

A Florida surgeon discusses robotic assisted surgery.

In the world of 3d printing, a new biosilk ink could make for innovative tissue printing.

MIT has come up with a way of simplifying the creation of CAD models for 3d printing.

HP is pushing hard into the 3d printing market.

ALCOA has decided to invest heavily in additive manufacturing (aka 3d printing).

 On the software bot side of the Robopocalypse, an AI program was written to create plot lines in interactive fiction (like video games).

An machine learning algorithm can now successfully predict whether or not someone's face will be successful as a fashion model.

In the economics side, VentureBeat looks at how drones will be transforming the economy.

ZDNet discusses how robotics is following IT and the internet's path to importance.

Oh the philosophy side, scientists and what-have-you are looking for information on major technological discontinuities from the past (with payments for accurate ones) where great change happened quickly.  They are looking for ways to avoid the shock of what true AI shows up.

On the humor side, a robot gives an interview and talks about taking over the world.  Take note, Noel.

Ukraine War Update: Молчание лягушек

The ceasefire has now held for a few days.  There have been four major violations: in Volnovakha where heavy artillery fired an estimated 6 salvos, in Gorlovka artillery was used and at Avdiivka and Maryinka nontrivial infantry clashes grew into having squad level mortars being used.

There was an ambush on a Ukrainian patrol looking for smugglers.  Two soldiers were killed.  Its unclear if it was the separatists, Russians or just plain smugglers.  I'd lean to that last group, honestly.

Yet this is still extremely quiet compared with the Sitz Krieg before.

In the Donbass, in the rebel held territories, a lot of equipment is moving around.  Some say the heavy equipment is being pulled back.  Others state the units at the front are being resupplied and heavily provisioned.  Fuel trucks are increasingly common.  The delivery of tanks has not stopped either.  In August, watchers claim another 150 Russian tanks and variable accounts of IFV/APCs crossed the border.  Whether they are really Russian, as in Russian Army, or for the DNR/LNR is not certain.  That would mean as much as all of the tanks in the Bundeswehr  was delivered in August.  At this point the Donnie Rebs have more firepower in terms of armored fighting vehicles than the entirety of Western Europe.

Ukraine has declared Russia a formal enemy.  With this, you can bet Ukraine will end up ending all cooperation in anything other than the most mundane of civilian ways. 

While many have reported on the hardening attitudes in Ukraine wrt the Donbass, little has been reported about how Ukraine is getting angry with the West, especially Europe.  Ukrainians feel the West is forcing them into bowing down to Russia.

The main struggle for Ukraine has shifted to Ukraine's other troubles.  The debt issues, struggles with its right wing supporters, internal saboteurs and corruption.  That part of the war for Ukraine's soul is far from done.  In fact, it has barely begun.  

For that matter, it remains to be seen whether or not the Donbass War is over or if it was paused for convenience.  

I have to wonder if the war will resume if and when the oil price rises sufficiently in the near future and Russia has failed to place a friendly government in Kiev before then.

The Differences Between the American Reaper and Chinese Caihong 5 UCAVs (drones)












China’s newest drone, the Caihong 5, appeared in last night’s huge military parade in Beijing. Chinese media are comparing the Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drone to America’s MQ-9 Reaper, which with up to four Hellfire missiles and two 500-lb. precision-guided bombs under its wings is the baddest drone known.

[...]

To the untrained eye the two drones may look a hell of a lot alike. But we hear from experts who cannot be named that the similarities between the Caihong 5 and the Reaper are at best superficial. Our experts work on black drone programs and can’t speak on the record.

The Caihong 5 has both a radome nose and an upward pointing V-tail like the Reaper, and its 66 foot wingspan is exactly the same as the American drone. According to Chinese media, the Caihong 5’s maximum gross takeoff weight is about 6,000 lbs., well below the Reaper’s 10,500 lbs., and Beijing’s Reaper knockoff has a reported maximum payload of 900 kilograms (1,984 lbs.), far less than the MQ-9’s combined payload of 3,000 lbs. external and 850 lbs. internal. The Reaper’s combined payload is about 1,749 kilos, nearly double the Caihong 5’s.

But that tale of the tape is just as superficial as the Caihong 5’s resemblance to the Reaper.







A Call for a Carbon Tax

Literally putting a price on carbon pollution and other greenhouse gasses is the best approach for nurturing the rapid growth of renewable energy and reducing emissions.

While prospects for a comprehensive carbon price are dim, especially in the U.S., many other policy approaches can spur the renewables revolution, according to a new policy article published in Nature.

The current price of carbon - which is below zero, once fossil-fuel subsidies are taken into account - is far too low given the hidden environmental, health and societal costs of burning coal and oil.

Pleistocene Quaternary Megafaunal Communities Became More Vulnerable After Human Arrival

Pleistocene megafaunal interaction networks became more vulnerable after human arrival

Authors:

Pires et al

Abstract:

The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions.

Refugia Identified for New Zealand Seabirds From Maori Overhunting

An international research team led by University of Otago scientists has documented prehistoric "sanctuary" regions where New Zealand seabirds survived early human hunting.

The researchers used ancient-DNA analysis, radiocarbon dating and computational modelling to reconstruct population histories for prehistoric seabirds around coastal New Zealand.

Dr Nic Rawlence, who carried out the genetic study, says the team found a very distinctive pattern, where shag/mapua (Leucocarbo chalconotus) populations from the Stewart Island region were little affected by human hunting, but mainland populations were rapidly decimated.

"There was a loss of more than 99% of their population size within 100 years of human arrival. These once heavily-hunted mainland populations now occupy only a fraction of their prehistoric range, having never really recovered," Dr Rawlence says.

The study suggests that the mainland populations survived on just a few rocky islands off the South Island's east coast.

"By comparison, the Stewart Island populations have experienced a relatively stable history," Dr Rawlence says.

Associate Professor Ian Smith, an Otago archaeologist involved in the study, says it seems that these contrasting wildlife histories reflect differences in prehistoric human-hunting pressure.

"Interestingly, recent archaeological studies suggest that human numbers declined in the Stewart Island region around 1500 AD, a factor which seems to explain why wildlife persisted in this region," he says.

The "Mayacene:" How the Maya's Impact on Their Environment


Evidence from the tropical lowlands of Central America reveals how Maya activity more than 2,000 years ago not only contributed to the decline of their environment but continues to influence today's environmental conditions, according to researchers at The University of Texas at Austin.

Synthesizing old and new data, researchers were the first to show the full extent of the "Mayacene" as a microcosm of the early anthropocene -- a period when human activity began greatly affecting environmental conditions.

"Most popular sources talk about the anthropocene and human impacts on climate since the industrial revolution, but we are looking at a deeper history," said lead author Tim Beach, the C.B. Smith Sr. Centennial Professor of Geography and the Environment. "Though it has no doubt accelerated in the last century, humans' impact on the environment has been going on a lot longer."

By looking at Maya impacts on climate, vegetation, hydrology and lithosphere from 3,000 to 1,000 years ago, researchers propose that the Maya's advanced urban and rural infrastructure altered ecosystems within globally important tropical forests.

The researchers identified six stratigraphic markers -- or "golden spikes" -- that indicate a time of large-scale change, including: "Maya clay" rocks; unique soil sequences; carbon isotope ratios; widespread chemical enrichment; building remains and landscape modifications; and signs of Maya-induced climate change.

"These spikes give us insight into how and why Mayas interacted with their environment, as well as the scope of their activity," said Sheryl Luzzadder-Beach, co-author and chair of the Department of Geography and the Environment.

Maya clay and soil sequences indicated erosion, human land-use changes and periods of instability. Soil profiles near wetlands revealed heightened carbon isotope ratios due to agriculture and corn production; and researchers noted a three- to fourfold increase in phosphorus throughout Maya-age sediments.

However, the most visual indication of human impact was found in building material remains and landscape modifications. Researchers believe that these clues reveal how the Maya used water management to adapt to climate change.

The Evolution of the Dental Formula of Late Cretaceous Eutherian Mammals

Evolutionary transition of dental formula in Late Cretaceous eutherian mammals

Authors:

Averianov et al

Abstract:

Kulbeckia kulbecke, stem placental mammal from the Late Cretaceous of Uzbekistan, shows a transitional stage of evolution in the dental formula from five to four premolars. A non-replaced dP3/dp3 may occur as individual variation. In other specimens, the lower premolars are crowded with no space for development of dp3. As is evident from the CT scanning of one juvenile specimen, the development of dp3 started in a late ontogenetic stage and was confined to the pulp cavity of the developing p2. This dp3 would have been resorbed in a later ontogenetic stage, as the roots of p2 formed. The initial stage of reduction of the third premolar can be traced to stem therians (Juramaia and Eomaia), which have both dP3 and P3 present in the adult dentition. Further delay in the development of dP3/dp3 led to the loss of the permanent P3/p3 (a possible synapomorphy for Eutheria). The dP3/dp3 was present during most of the adult stages in the Late Cretaceous stem placentals Zhelestidae and Gypsonictops. This tooth is totally absent in basal taxa of Placentalia, which normally have at most four premolars.

Fallen Knowledge


What Drove the Ediacaran Biota Mass Extinction? Were They EATEN Into Extinction?

Biotic replacement and mass extinction of the Ediacara biota

Authors:

Darroch et al

Abstract:

The latest Neoproterozoic extinction of the Ediacara biota has been variously attributed to catastrophic removal by perturbations to global geochemical cycles, ‘biotic replacement’ by Cambrian-type ecosystem engineers, and a taphonomic artefact. We perform the first critical test of the ‘biotic replacement’ hypothesis using combined palaeoecological and geochemical data collected from the youngest Ediacaran strata in southern Namibia. We find that, even after accounting for a variety of potential sampling and taphonomic biases, the Ediacaran assemblage preserved at Farm Swartpunt has significantly lower genus richness than older assemblages. Geochemical and sedimentological analyses confirm an oxygenated and non-restricted palaeoenvironment for fossil-bearing sediments, thus suggesting that oxygen stress and/or hypersalinity are unlikely to be responsible for the low diversity of communities preserved at Swartpunt. These combined analyses suggest depauperate communities characterized the latest Ediacaran and provide the first quantitative support for the biotic replacement model for the end of the Ediacara biota. Although more sites (especially those recording different palaeoenvironments) are undoubtedly needed, this study provides the first quantitative palaeoecological evidence to suggest that evolutionary innovation, ecosystem engineering and biological interactions may have ultimately caused the first mass extinction of complex life.
PR pop sci version.

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wait! What?! A Dish to Celebrate the Victory Over Japan in China


A friend sent this to me.  Not sure what to think.

Once Upon the Permian: Therocephalians, the Near Mammals Before Mammals

Euchambersia, a potentially venomous akidnognathid eutherocephalian

Introducing the Therocephalians

It has been a long time since I wrote a therapsid post.  Part of the problem is there are two groups I find the most fascinating and want to write about.  However, they are incredibly diverse.  Far, far more so than either the dicynodonts or the gorgonopsids.  While the former filled niches of herbivores from those like gophers to giant cattle or rhinos and the latter were carnivores filling top or middle predator niches, the others fill virtually everything.    Herbivore, carnivore, omnivore, aquatic, arboreal, flying and more.  So, it's really hard to do a single post for them.  Those groups are the therocephalians and the cynodonts.  The latter encompass our modern mammals.  Some day, I'll get the cynodonts, but not today.  Today, I'll be covering the therocephalians.

Annatherapsis, an otter-like akidnognathid eutherocephalian

While the therocephalians are somewhat known from a couple of appearances in the popular media, in Primeval and Walking With Monsters, they are largely unknown in truth.  They were large and small.  Sabre toothed top predators and rodent-like herbivores.  They had a far greater range of bauplans than did either of the other two groups I have written about.  


Therocephalians ("beast heads") were the sister clade to cynodonts ("dog teeth"): meaning they are very closely related.  Cynodonts were the lineage that gave rise to and encompasses mammals.  Early on they were almost exclusively carnivorous, but after the Permian Mass Extinction they would go on to fill even more roles.  They would develop a number of traits in parallel to the cynodonts.  So much so, that it was long thought they were the ancestors of mammals through the Bauroids rather than cynodonts. Some of those features were the secondary palate, phalanges like those of mammals, evidence of warm bloodedness and even whiskers.




The therocephalians existed from the Middle Permian (Capitanian) through the early Middle (Anisian) Triassic.  They diversified after the Guadalupian Mass Extinction, along with many other advanced therapsid forms, survived the Permian Extinction and then made it into the early Middle Triassic.  They seem to have been victims of whatever changed over the ecology from being a mix of therapsids and archosaurs in the megafauna to an archosaur dominated megafauna in the Late Triassic.  Some have speculated they were merely outcompeted by cynodonts and the rising archosauriformes.  They are last recorded in Namibia during the Anisian Triassic with Microgomphodon.

Therocephalians were fairly common.  They seem to have been discovered on all continents save North America.  They appear to have evolved in Gondwana and spread.  They survived, as far as we can tell, last in what is now southern Africa. 

They varied in size from as small as about 3 1/2 inch Microgomphodon up to the estimated giant 3m (10 ft) long Megawhaitsia.  Most seemed to be around 1.5m (5 ft) long though, but later species were much smaller.

There were many clades

Lycosuchus

The earliest and basal most (sorta, most primitive) were the Lycosuchidae.  These "wolf crocodiles" were the earliest known therocephalians living during the Capitanian.  The most famous was, of course, Lycosuchus. While distinct, Lycosuchus has similar to the gorgonopsids.  However, one of the distinct features was the double canines.  There have been a lot of arguments over whether or not the double canines are a case of tooth replacement being seen in the fossil record, a defect in that particular animal or a true feature of the animal throughout its life.  Lycosuchus was fairly large, being 1.2m (almost 4 ft) long.  Simorhellia appears to be a close relative.

Pristeragnathus, a scylacosaurid

Scylacosaurus and its relatives in Scylacosauridae were the next most basal of the therocephalians.  Glanosuchus is one of the most famous of group and has the beginnings of many of the more advanced features that the therocephalians would develop in convergent evolution with the cynodonts and mammals.  Most of this group were large-ish carnivores being about 1.5 meters (5 ft) in length, roughly the length of a large wolf.

The remaining clade of the basal therocephalians is Trochosuchidae. These were similar to their cousins, the Scylacosauridae and Lycosuchidae. They lacked the crest on the skull of scylacosaurs, had a broader, more flatten skull and only had one, large canine tooth (yet for some reason many of the popular drawings have them with two.  odd that).

The True Beast Heads

Eutherocephalia, the "true beast heads" were the clade that could be described as more derived than the earlier, basal clades.  It was even more mammal like than its predecessors and is divided into several subclades as well: Akidnognathidae, Hofmeyriidae, Whaitsiidae, Baurioidea and others. We'll discuss, briefly, Akidnognathidae, Nanictidopidae, Whaitsiidae and Baurioidea.


Akidnognathidae is often the clade thought of if and when someone thinks of the therocephalians.  They encompassed the sabre toothed and much studied Moschorhinus and the famous Euchambersia, notable for being potentially venomous.  Moschorhinus is the most heavily studied of the group and survived the Permian Extinction.  After the extinction, it became smaller, demonstrating the so-called Lilliput Effect and developed even larger canines, becoming more sabre toothed than before.  Euchambersia was famous for being sorta portrayed in Walking with Beasts for having a poisonous bite.  That's controversial, to say the least, but it did have the grooves in its canines and a socket above for a poison gland consistent with venomous animals.  Akidnognathidae was fairly large, often about 1.5m (5 ft in length).  While members survived the Permian Extinction, most of its diversity was wiped out and it did not last long after.  In many ways Akidnognathidae appeared to be convergent with modern carnivores for its bauplans and niches.

Purlova, a nanictidopid therocephalian from Russia

Nanictidopidae is another clade of eutherocephalians.  They are notable for their distribution, found so far in South Africa and Russia, but also because they appear to be the first therocephalians to have become herbivores during the Late Permian.  They had reduced canines and tooth wear consistent with herbivory.  Their skulls were more robust and trianular than other eutherocephalains of their time and this has been suggested as support for herbivory as well.  Their skulls were about 20 cm in length and if their bauplan was consitent with other therocephalians, they were not small and had an overall length of 120 cm (4 ft).

Megawhaitsia, a highly speculative reconstruction of the whaitsiid therocephalian

Whaitsiidae is another notable clade within eutherocephalia.  They were general carnivores and around 1 meter in length.  Interestingly, they have 5 upper incisors and then 4 lower.  However, the most notable bit is one of its members (Megawhaitsia) is the largest therocephalian found to date: the maximilla found in Russia makes for an estimated skull length of up to 50 cm.  If the body plan follows that of other whaitsiids, then the body length is around 3 meters.  Since it lived during the time of the Gorgonopsids, it makes you wonder if they were locally absent for Megawhaitsia to become so large.

Bauria, the quintessential Bauroid

The last group of eutherocephalians I will be covering is the Baurioidea.  There is no way I can do any credit to this diverse and interesting group.  They tended to be small and they developed into near mammals.  Some were convergent with rodents (Bauria, Microgomphodon) and others started reconverging with the larger sabre toothed forms that had gone extinct (Nothogomphodon), but it might be better to call it a sabre-toothed badger.  They were herbivorous (Bauria et al) and carnivorous (Nothogomphodon).  They survived the Permian Extinction and even diversified during the disaster taxa stages, the earliest Triassic.  They were also the smallest therocephalians of any stripe: Microgomphodon was 9 cm (3.6 in) long.  The largest of them, Nothogomphodon, was around 50 cm long (20 inches).

Nothogomphodon, a bauroid therocephalian.

And that's all he wrote...

The therocephalians lasted for at least 20 million years.  Its likely we have not found the last of species they had, given there was a dicynodont recovered from the Australian Cretaceous, nor have we found the earliest of them either.  They had a good run.  However, for all their mad evolutionary innovation, it ought to be remembered, 20 million years from now in the past is in the Miocene Neogene for us.  Its a relative blink of time and yet they evolved and changed in some radical ways.  They were as big as short-faced bears to as small as a mouse.  They were aquatic like otters and were mini rodents and the amongst the largest of carnivores.  They were amazing in their own right.  Unfortunately, they are incredibly diverse and ought to have their own post like the dicynodonts and gorgonopsids for each of the clades given what we know, but, alas, I am a rocket scientist and ought to get back to that fun paperwork.

Is This the Royal Navy Destroyer (warship) of 2050?






link.

US Navy Successfully Flies 50 UAV Swarm

Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Assistant Professor Timothy Chung met with members of NPS’ Advanced Robotic Systems Engineering Laboratory (ARSENL) during a field exercise at Camp Roberts, Aug. 27. Members of ARSENL flew 50 autonomous UAVs breaking their previous record of 30, set just five weeks ago.

“I’m very proud of reaching our goal of successfully flying 50 autonomous UAVs simultaneously,” said Chung.

The 50 UAVs were launched and flown autonomously in two “sub-swarms” of 25 UAVs each and guided using ARSENL-developed swarm operator interfaces. The UAVs performed basic leader-follower cooperative behaviors and exchanged information amongst themselves via wireless links.

“This project came from the notion that quantity is a quality,” said Chung. “It’s like trying to play a game of tennis against an entire 5th grade class. If they were are all lobbing tennis balls across the court, it would be very hard to defend against them.”

In the past, each aircraft would be operated by a single person, which makes for a very large footprint with many moving parts.

Saudi Arabia Buying 2 Lockheed Built Freedom Class LCS Derived Frigates for $1 Billion

Saudi Arabia is in advanced discussions with the U.S. government about buying two frigates based on a coastal warship that Lockheed Martin Corp is building for the U.S. Navy, and could reach agreement by the end of the year, according to sources familiar with the talks.

The frigate sale, valued at well over $1 billion, will be the cornerstone of a long-delayed multi billion dollar modernization of the Royal Saudi Navy’s Gulf-patroling eastern fleet of aging U.S. warships and would include smaller patrol boats. It underscores the strong business and military ties between the two countries, despite tensions over the U.S.-led Iran nuclear deal.

Paperwork for the Saudi deal could be finalized by year's end, the sources told Reuters this week. The larger modernization effort will encompass training, infrastructure and anti-submarine warfare equipment, and could include orders from other countries, the sources said.

link.

Amusingly, McCain et al want the minehunting UUV replaced on the LCS classes.

Long Range Strike Bomber Designs Very Mature, NOT Flown Yet & Competing Designs VERY Different


The two designs competing to be the US Air Force's next generation bomber have undergone extensive testing by the service and are far more mature than previously known, to a level nearly unheard of in the Pentagon before a contract award, Defense News has learned.

The designs also feature significantly improved stealth capabilities when compared to the B-2 and still feature plans for future certification of nuclear weaponry and the ability to be optionally manned.

Considered one of the US Air Force's three top acquisition priorities, the Long Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B) program has been kept primarily in the dark as the service weighs two competing proposals, one from Northrop Grumman, and the other from a team of Boeing and Lockheed Martin. A contract award is expected soon, with indications it could come before the end of September.

On Tuesday, the Air Force held a meeting with outside stakeholders laying out new details on the secretive bomber. According to two individuals with knowledge of the meeting, the service has conducted far greater testing of the bomber designs than is normal for a pre-award program.

One source said the Air Force officials who briefed made it clear that both designs are "very mature," having undergone wind tunnel testing and extensive survivability tests to evaluate the design from all angles. However, neither design has actually flown, both sources said.


So: 

  • 21 bombers at a LRIP
  • Smaller than a B-2; bigger than a UCLASS
  • Initial Bombers all manned
  • Bomber not  certified for nukes at the get go
  • cost plus incentive for the first part of the contract
  • remaining 79 bombers in a second contract
  • Supposedly each design radically different, but some sources claim both designs are flying wings

 

Come. Know Thyself






What everyone pictures the Fruit of Knowledge looked like.





What it probably really looked like.

Podolimirus mirus: a Bilateral Animal From Ediacaran NeoProterozoic Ukraine


Taphonomy of the Ediacaran Podolimirus and associated dipleurozoans from the Vendian of Ukraine

Authors:

Dzik et al

Abstract:

Fossiliferous strata of the late Ediacaran Lomoziv Member of the Mohyliv Formation, once known from now flooded outcrops along the Dniester River, have been recently exposed in a large quarry near the Novodnistrovs’k electric plant dam in Podolia, Ukraine. Finely bedded arkosic sandstone with claystone/siltstone intercalations is locally rich in ‘elephant skin’ surfaces indicating original presence of microbial mats. Imprints of soft-bodied organisms frequently occur on the sole surfaces of the sandstones. There are no signs of early diagenetic cementation with iron sulfides and the fossils are usually strongly compacted, with low relief. Specimens of bilaterally symmetrical latest Precambrian animals newly collected at the quarry offer additional evidence that their bodies had a complex internal anatomy. This relates especially to Podolimirus mirus, previously known from only fragmentary specimens representing only marginal parts of its chambered organ (‘quilt’). It appears that there is a large region of the body in front of the ‘quilt’, with a lobate organ resembling bifurcating anterior structures earlier thought to represent intestinal diverticula in other dickinsoniids. The ‘quilt’ (presumably a dorsal muscular organ) of Podolimirus has a deep medial sinus that may have hosted a cylindrical axial organ analogous to that reported in the dickinsoniids from northern Russia and Australia.

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Wait! What?! Neandertals in Spain had a HEATED WATER? (????) Basin?!?!


The Neanderthals of the Abric Romaní (Capellades, Barcelona) site excavated a concave hole on the ground of 40x30x10 cm. It could be a container excavated with a digger stick with a finality of heat water. This hole is located near the wall of the rockshelter and is enclosed of a high quantity of hearths, limestones and speleothemes with thermical fractures. The discovery took place during this month’s excavation managed by the IPHES (Institut Català de Paleoecologia Humana i Evolució Social); it started on August 7th and finished on August 28th. This fieldwork supplied new 10 000 archaeological remains whose provide very important information about the domestic activities of Neanderthals.

The Planet of the Apes is NIgh: Koko the Gorilla Appears to be Learning to Talk


Koko, a 44-year-old gorilla famous for her ability to communicate with keepers using sign language, is now showing signs of early speech. “Koko has developed vocal and breathing behaviors associated with the ability to talk, which were previously thought to be impossible in her species,” The Daily Mail reports. The new development could further blur the line between what distinguishes humans from some of our more hirsute cousins.


Hat tip to Randy.

yes, I made the joke the original author referenced.

Has UC San Diego Discovered how to do Optical Stealth With Metamaterials?


Cloaking devices — or “metamaterials” that scatter light — have been in university labs for years. But electrical engineers at U.C. San Diego claim they’ve solved a few key problems that make existing cloaks too obvious to the human eye.

First, let’s back up a moment. For the most part, metamaterials in cloaking devices are really thick and bulky. Far too bulky to be practical. The second problem is that the cloaks scatter light at lower intensities than when the light first touches the cloak — and all that low-intensity light is still within visual frequencies.

This means we perceive the area around those cloaks to be darker than its surroundings. It’s a dead giveaway.

But the U.C. San Diego engineers claim they’ve corrected those two issues in a recent paper. A very thin sheet of Teflon peppered with tiny dielectric cylinders can scatter light while being “almost lossless,” they claim, meaning there’s little to no difference in the intensity of light around the cloak.



US Marine Corps Exploring Uses of Augmented Reality



Think of it as Google Glass goes to war — only less nerd and more Marine. Budget cuts and readiness shortfalls have the US military looking at virtual reality as a partial replacement for expensive field exercises. But VR has real limits. So this month, young Marines at the Infantry Officer Course in Quantico tested a technology to get the best of both worlds: augmented reality.

While virtual reality puts the user in a completely computer-generated environment, augmented reality superimposes computer-generated elements — say, a tank, a helicopter, or a building — on the real world. That lets troops go through the actual, physical motions of the skill they’re training for and build muscle memory, without restricting the targets and support units.

Google Glass and football broadcasts already use a limited form of augmented reality, superimposing static elements like a yellow first-down line on the footage of the actual game. Military training requirements are much more complex. Ground combat is a team sport, so different users in different places need to see the same computer-generated component — and the perspective has to change realistically as the users move around. The computer-generated components themselves need to move and interact, for example by blowing up.

Pentecopterus: a Giant Darriwilian Ordovician Sea Scorpion From 10 Million Years Earlier Than Expected


You don't name a sea creature after an ancient Greek warship unless it's built like a predator.

That's certainly true of the recently discovered Pentecopterus, a giant sea scorpion with the sleek features of a penteconter, one of the first Greek galley ships. A Yale University research team says Pentecopterus lived 467 million years ago and could grow to nearly six feet, with a long head shield, a narrow body, and large, grasping limbs for trapping prey. It is the oldest described eurypterid -- a group of aquatic arthropods that are ancestors of modern spiders, lobsters, and ticks.

A detailed description of the animal appears in the Sept. 1 online edition of the journal BMC Evolutionary Biology.

"This shows that eurypterids evolved some 10 million years earlier than we thought, and the relationship of the new animal to other eurypterids shows that they must have been very diverse during this early time of their evolution, even though they are very rare in the fossil record," said James Lamsdell, a postdoctoral associate at Yale University and lead author of the study.

"Pentecopterus is large and predatory, and eurypterids must have been important predators in these early Palaeozoic ecosystems," Lamsdell said.

Let's get a Feather!


Marine and Terrestrial Permian Extinctions Aren't Geochronologically Synchronous?

Is the vertebrate-defined Permian-Triassic boundary in the Karoo Basin, South Africa, the terrestrial expression of the end-Permian marine event?

Authors:

Gastaldo et al

Abstract:

The end-Permian extinction records the greatest ecological catastrophe in Earth history. The vertebrate fossil record in the Karoo Basin, South Africa, has been used for more than a century as the standard for understanding turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, recently claimed to be in synchrony with the marine crisis. Workers assumed that systematic turnover at the Dicynodon assemblage zone boundary, followed by the appearance of new taxa directly above the base of the Lystrosaurus assemblage zone, is the continental expression of the end-Permian event and recovery. To test this hypothesis, we present the first high-precision age on strata close to the inferred Permian-Triassic boundary. A U-Pb isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry zircon age of 253.48 ± 0.15 Ma (early Changhsingian) is from a silicified ash layer ∼60 m below the current vertebrate-defined boundary at Old Lootsberg Pass (southern South Africa). This section yields newly discovered plants and vertebrates, and is dominated by a normal polarity signature. Our collective data suggest that the Dicynodon-Lystrosaurus assemblage zone boundary is stratigraphically higher than currently reported, and older than the marine extinction event. Therefore, the turnover in vertebrate taxa at this biozone boundary probably does not represent the biological expression of the terrestrial end-Permian mass extinction. The actual Permian-Triassic boundary in the Karoo Basin is either higher in the Katberg Formation or is not preserved. The currently accepted model of the terrestrial ecosystem response to the crisis, both in this basin and its extension globally, requires reevaluation.